My Predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards

January 13, 2020

My Predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards

Another year, another Oscars. What do they mean anyway? To many an avid cinephile, not that much. At least not anymore. More often than not, the voters make the wrong decisions in the nomination process and then in picking the winners. Also, the winners, more often then not, are unpredictable. But that doesn't stop your's truly from trying. In fact, dare I say, I'm beginning to get the thinking of the Academy down to a science. Years of studying has made me recognize familiar patterns as to which films/people win in certain categories. So for all intents and purposes, here are my predictions as to who will win the top prizes in each category. I'm not a betting man, and I wouldn't recommend bringing this list to Vegas. Unless all of these predictions turn out to be right, which in that case, stay tuned for next year. For now, let me make my case.

BEST PICTURE - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

To the unsuspecting eye, this year's race for the grand prize appears to be wide open. A colossal nine films are nominated, and each one has conceivable components of a best picture winner. Yet judging from the winners of recent years, and industry chatter, I'm confident to conclude that a perfect storm is brewing in favor of Tarantino's Hollywood epic. Two factors in particular come to my mind.

One being the fact that, once again, the Oscars is heading for another showdown with Netflix. Last year, for the first time, a Netflix original film came close to winning the grand prize. That being, Alfonso Cuaron's masterpiece Roma. By racking up win after another, including Best Director, one would have thought it was a sure thing. That is until Julia Roberts read from the ballot, and shocked the world. Out from her mouth came, Green Book. The controversial and sappy adaptation of a black musician's tour of the south. The win was so unexpected that Spike Lee, who hours before took home his first Oscar ever, stormed out of the theater in a rage. How could this have happened? How could a lukewarm Hollywood feel-gooder win over an internationally acclaimed masterpiece? Netflix. The Oscars are an institution. One born and bred in the theater. They have lived by the reel, and they will die by the reel. It was the loudest message they could have ever given to the digital streaming world. Film is here to stay. This year Netflix returns with not one but two monster hits that were engineered for the Oscars. But more notably, a return to form Mob epic for Martin Scorsese. The Irishman is a critically acclaimed juggernaut that by any estimation, and in any other year, looks like a big winner. Trust in this pattern and rest assured that Netflix isn't taking home Best Picture for a very long time. So where does that leave us? Conveniently in the lap of Hollywood's second master filmmaker. QT has lucked out in not only making the most exuberant, rollicking film of his entire career, but one that fetishizes old Hollywood. You couldn't have planned it better.

Here is the second crucial factor. When it comes to the big name American filmmakers of the past century, each one of them can claim taking home the grand prize at least once in their respective careers. Scorsese, Spielberg, Coppola, Allen, Eastwood... but not Quentin Tarantino. Even in 1994, his crowning achievement in Pulp Fiction lost to the wholesome and beloved Forrest Gump. It's long overdue for him to make his mark on film history. Luckily for him, that time has come.

BEST DIRECTOR - Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)

This year, the slate for Best Director is crowded with heavy hitters. Scorsese, Tarantino, Mendes and even the unexpected Todd Phillips. Sam Mendes has been receiving multiple nods for his impressive direction of 1917. But the Oscars, as of late, really love an underdog and especially one that hasn't already won for this category. Unfortunately for Mr. Mendes, he's already a Best Director winner for 1999's American Beauty. Bong Joon-ho is an international phenomenon for the unconventional and unique Parasite. He's the talk of the film world. All he needs is to be crowned. This year, he just might be.

BEST ACTOR - Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

This one is a no-brainer. For a role this transformative and chilling, it would be preposterous for the Academy not to reward Joaquin for it. After all, you get what you (bleep)ing deserve.

BEST ACTRESS - Renee Zelwegger (Judy)

The Academy loves biopics. For actors, this is the big enchilada. Renee is the shoe-in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Brad Pitt has a lucky star on his side. That, or the voters for these award shows have split the majority of their votes between Al Pacino and Joe Pesci for their respective roles in The Irishman. Both of them tower over the nominees, and in a perfect world, would share this award in a tie. They were just magnificent this year. Unfortunately, like in politics, if two candidates split the vote, only one person with a solid enough base runs away with the prize. For certain, that will be Cliff Booth.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

In the industry they call this category "the Tarantino". He's brought home two of these already for Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Greta Gerwig (Little Women)

Filmmakers weren't happy to see Greta Gerwig's big snub for Best Director this year. It's strange why all films nominated for Best Picture aren't subsequently nominated for Best Director. That would be common sense right? But I'm pleased say that I have a feeling she is in for a wonderful surprise. While her snub stings for rising female filmmakers in the industry, this lights a fire under the hides of the voters to make up for it. Little Women is a classic book, and it's latest adaptation to the screen has an interesting twist going for it. Adaptations are all about what more you can do with the source material at hand. I'm thinking you've got this, Lady Bird.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Missing Link

Like the Golden Globes, the Academy is looking for fresh faces and original concepts in the animation department. Look out, Buzz and Woody.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM - Parasite

Any time that an international film is nominated for Best Picture, it is 100% sure that it will be taking home the prize in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Honeyland

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM - Hair Love

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - Hildur Guonadottir (Joker)

In a category that includes two Newmans and the sound of Star Wars, it's Joker's haunting score that will take home the prize.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG - (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again (Elton John)

BEST SOUND EDITING - 1917

BEST SOUND MIXING - 1917

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - 1917

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN - JoJo Rabbit

The Oscars love whimsy and twee when it comes to the creation of worlds. Anything cute, eccentric and painstakingly crafted is usually a sure winner. JoJo Rabbit brings Nazi Germany back to life in this unique way.